4/18/2018

Chapter 14 - Probability

Class Activity

• Suppose that Lebron James will take five free throws in the NBA playoff game tonight. What is the probability distribution for the number of shots (out of five) that he will make?

Probability (Review)

• Basic Axioms
• Relative frequence interpretation of P(A)
• Addition rule for disjoint events: P(AUB) = P(A) + P(B), if A and B are disjoint
• General addition rule: P(A or B)=P(A) + P(B) - P(A and B)
• Countable versus uncountable sets
• Counting: permutations versus combinations
• Conditional probability: P(A|B) = P(A and B)/P(B)
• Multiplication rule: P(A and B) = P(A|B)P(B) = P(B|A)P(A)
• Independence: P(A|B) = P(A)
• Multiplication rule for independent events: P(A and B) = P(A) x P(B)
• Law of Total Probability

Random Variables

• Bernoulli random variable
  • probability distribution
  • mean
  • variance
  • standard deviation
• Binomial random variable
  • probability distribution
  • mean
  • variance
  • standard deviation

In class exercises - 34, 35, 41 and 42 on pages 578 and 579.

Please read Chapters 14 and 15 for class on Monday.

Reminder: We will have a quiz on Friday which will cover the material in Chapter 12 + quadratic models in Chapter 13. The focus will be on quadratic regression and multiple regression models.