2/6/2013

Discussion of Rolling Down the River - blocking

Simulating Sampling Distributions of Proportions with Minitab

• Calc > Random Data > Binomial

Introduction to Probability

Relative Frequency Interpretation

• The probability of an event A, say P(A), is the long-run relative frequency of the event.  That is, we independently repeat a random experiment n times and keep track of the fraction of experiments in which the event A occurs.  The relative frequency interpretation of P(A) is then the long-run proportion of independent experiments in which A occurs.

Logical Probability

• If a random experiment can result in any one of n equally likely outcomes, then the probability of an event A, say P(A), is equal to one over the number of equally likely outcomes. i.e., P(A)=1/n.

Subjective Probability

• The probability of an event, say P(A), is a number between 0 and 1, inclusive, which measures an individual’s degree of belief in the event.

Using Simulation to Estimate Probabilities

• Demonstration with Minitab (flipping an unbalanced coin 1000 times)
  • Calc > Make Patterned Data
  • Calc > Random Data
  • Calc > Calculator
  • Graph > Scatterplot
• Tossing and spinning coins
• Rolling dice
• Dealing cards

Our first Quiz will be in class on Friday